Economic Calendar_02_05_

The Week Ahead 02-05 May 2017

After the relative peace and quiet of yesterday’s bank holiday, market participants are now bracing themselves for a busy few days, with major events and economic releases due that can really move the Foreign Exchange markets.

Most importantly, the decisive second stage of the French elections takes place on Sunday. While pro-business centrist Emmanuel Macron is still the pollster’s favourite, ex-Front National chief Marine Le Pen has been clawing her way into contention by making the disillusioned working class her clear electoral target. Marine Le Pen is a known critic of the EU and the Euro in particular, arguing that both constructs have destroyed France and its Global identity.

One thing is clear to Indigo FX – while Emmanuel Macron has a clear lead now and strong backing from all of the other parties, his lack of political experience is showing through on the campaign trail. In short, Marine Le Pen is running rings around him at the moment. On Wednesday, the two candidates will go head-to-head in an eagerly anticipated televised debate. This debate will be critical: Macron has the most to lose and any major mis-step may swing things Le Pen’s way. Should she gain further ground, this will likely affect the Euro’s recent mini-recovery and make markets tense going into the weekend. To be clear, a Le Pen victory will almost certainly trigger a ‘Frexit’ referendum and seriously threaten the EU project.

Should investors worry about this outcome? Financial markets currently suggest this is a distant possibility. Bookmakers make the odds on Marine Le Pen becoming the next president of France at around 5-1. But these are roughly the same odds as they gave Donald Trump with a week remaining. Le Pen is following Trump’s playbook – even the rallying cry of “Make France Free Again,” echoes the US presidents “Make America Great Again” slogan. Investors have been warned.

Outside of France, there is still a lot to keep track of. President Trump marked his first 100 days in the office last week, which have been interesting to say the least. He is planning to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and said on Monday that under the right circumstances he would be ‘honoured’ to meet ‘smart cookie’ Kim Jong-Un, North Korea’s Great Leader.

Datawise, it’s a busy economic calendar: this week we have the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy update. On Friday it’s Non-Farm Payroll day, which is still the single most important monthly scheduled economic data release.

Below are the main economic events to watch out for this week:

Monday

11:00     EUR EU Economic Forecasts
13:30    USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) (Mar
13:30    USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
13:30    USD Personal Income (MoM) (Mar)
13:30    USD Personal Income (MoM) (Mar)
13:30    USD Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
13:45    USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
13:45    USD Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Speaks
15:00    USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
15:00    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
15:00    USD ISM Prices Paid (Apr)
15:00    USD Construction Spending (MoM) (Mar)

Tuesday

09:00   EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
09:30   GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
09:30   GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
09:30   GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Wednesday

08:00   EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
08:55   EUR Unemployment Change (Apr)
08:55   EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (Apr)
09:30   GBP PMI Construction (Apr)
09:00   EUR Gross Domestic Products s.a (QoQ) (Q1) Preliminar
n/a       EUR 10-y Bond Auction
10:00    EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q
13:15     USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Apr)
14:45    USD Markit Service PMI (Apr)
15:00    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
15:30    USD Crude Oil Inventories
17:30    EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
18:00    USD Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement Report
18:00    USD Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
19:00    USD FOMC Statement (Wednesday)

Thursday

09:00   EUR Markit PMI Composite (Apr)
09:00   EUR Markit Services PMI (Apr)
09:00   GBP Consumer Credit (Mar)
09:30   GBP Mortgage Approvals (Mar)
09:30   GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
13:30    USD Trade Balance (Mar)
12:30    USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 28)
13:30    USD Unemployment Claims
15:00    USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

Friday

N/A      European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts – Report
13:30    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)
13:30    USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M (Apr)
13:30    USD Non-Farm Employment Change
13:30    USD Unemployment Rate (Apr)
13:30    USD Labor Force Participation Rate (Apr)
18:00    USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
18:30    USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
20:00   USD Consumer Credit Change (Mar)