The Week Ahead 21-26 May 2017

For now, the European election cycle has gone quiet and European politicians are eagerly anticipating their Summer holidays. In the UK, there is no such luxury as the nation readies itself for June’s General Election. Theresa May’s has taken a strong lead on preparing the UK for Brexit while trying to protect the future economy. In the run-up to June 8th, Sterling will remain prisoner to the daily news-flows as the politicians trade blows and seek to pick flaws in each other’s plans for the country should they take charge.
Economic data in the UK still shows that inflation is rising, but these backward looking economic releases do not factor in GBP’s 8% rally from the lows last year. As a result, there remains little pressure for the BoE to raise rates at the moment.
The Euro continues to trade well as investors have been emboldened by Emmanuel Macron’s Presidential Victory in France and an improving economic picture. With bigger risks and uncertainty elsewhere, the Euro currently provides calmer waters.
The US Dollar has been under pressure of late – falling to two month lows – as Donald Trump comes under more and more scrutiny regarding alleged collusion from Russia and lack of confidence in his ability to push through his election promises.
As ever, scheduled economic releases have the potential to move the markets and next week you should keep an eye on:

 

Sunday May 21

  • 23:01  GBP     Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) (May)
  • 23:01  GBP     Rightmove House Price index (MoM) (May)

Monday May 22

  • n/a      EUR     German Buba Monthly Report
    12:30  USD     Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr)
  • 15:30  USD     3-Month Bill Auction
  • 15:30  USD     6-Month Bill Auction

Tuesday May 23

  • 06:00  EUR     Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY (Q1)
  • 06:00  EUR     Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q1)
  • 06:00  EUR     Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 07:30  EUR     Markit Services PMI (May)
  • 08:00  EUR     IFO – Expectations (May)
  • 08:00  EUR     IFO – Business Climate (May)
  • 08:00  EUR     IFO – Current Assessment (May)
  • 08:00  EUR     Markit Services PMI (May)
    08:30  GPB     Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr)
  • 09:00  EUR     EU Financial Stability Review (Apr)
  • 10:00  GBP     Inflation Report Hearings
  • 10:00  GBP     CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realised (MoM) (May)
  • 12:55  USD     Redbook Index (YoY) (May 19)
  • 12:55  USD     Redbook Index (MoM) (May 19)
  • 13:45  USD     Markit Manufacturing PMI (May)
  • 13:45  USD     Markit Service PMI (May)
  • 14:00  USD     New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
  • 14:00  USD     New Home Sales Change (MoM)
  • 14:00  USD     Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
  • 15:30  USD     52-Week Bill Auction
  • 15:30  USD     4-Week Bill Auction
  • 17:00  USD     2-Year Note Auction
  • 20:30  USD     API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Wednesday

  • 06:00  EUR     GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun)
  • 11:00  USD     MBA Mortgage Applications
  • 14:00  USD     Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Apr)
  • 14:30  USD     EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May 19)
  • 17:00  USD     5-year Note Auction
  • 18:00  USD     FOMC Minutes
  • 22:00  USD     FOMC Member Kaplan Speech

Thursday May 25

  • 24hr   USD     OPEC Meeting
  • 08:30  GBP     BBA Mortgage Approvals (Apr)
  • 08:30  GBP     Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)
  • 08:30  GBP     Index of Service 3M/3M) (Mar)
  • 09:30  GBP     Total Business Investment (YoY) (Q1)
  • 12:30  USD     Initial Jobless Claims (May 19)
  • 12:30  USD     Continuing Jobless Claims (May 12)
  • 12:30  USD     Wholesale Inventories (Apr)
  • 12:30  USD     Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
  • 14:30  USD     EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (May 19)
  • 15:00  USD     Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity (May)
  • 17:00  USD     7-year Note Auction

Friday May 26

  • 06:45  USD     Fed’s Bullard Speech
  • 12:30  USD     Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q1)
  • 12:30  USD     Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1)
  • 12:30  USD     Personal Consumption Expenditures
  • 12:30  USD     Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation (Apr)
  • 12:30  USD     Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
  • 14:00  USD     Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May)
  • 17:00  USD     Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
  • 19:30  EUR     CFTC EUR NC Net Positions
  • 19:30  EUR     CFTC Gold NC Net Positions
  • 19:30  EUR     CFTC USD NC Net Positions
  • 19:30  EUR     CFTC Oil NC Net Positions
  • 19:30  GBP     CFTC GBP NC Positions