For now, the European election cycle has gone quiet and European politicians are eagerly anticipating their Summer holidays. In the UK, there is no such luxury as the nation readies itself for June’s General Election. Theresa May’s has taken a strong lead on preparing the UK for Brexit while trying to protect the future economy. In the run-up to June 8th, Sterling will remain prisoner to the daily news-flows as the politicians trade blows and seek to pick flaws in each other’s plans for the country should they take charge.
Economic data in the UK still shows that inflation is rising, but these backward looking economic releases do not factor in GBP’s 8% rally from the lows last year. As a result, there remains little pressure for the BoE to raise rates at the moment.
The Euro continues to trade well as investors have been emboldened by Emmanuel Macron’s Presidential Victory in France and an improving economic picture. With bigger risks and uncertainty elsewhere, the Euro currently provides calmer waters.
The US Dollar has been under pressure of late – falling to two month lows – as Donald Trump comes under more and more scrutiny regarding alleged collusion from Russia and lack of confidence in his ability to push through his election promises.
As ever, scheduled economic releases have the potential to move the markets and next week you should keep an eye on:
Sunday May 21
- 23:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) (May)
- 23:01 GBP Rightmove House Price index (MoM) (May)
Monday May 22
- n/a EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Apr) - 15:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction
- 15:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction
Tuesday May 23
- 06:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY (Q1)
- 06:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q1)
- 06:00 EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q1)
- 07:30 EUR Markit Services PMI (May)
- 08:00 EUR IFO – Expectations (May)
- 08:00 EUR IFO – Business Climate (May)
- 08:00 EUR IFO – Current Assessment (May)
- 08:00 EUR Markit Services PMI (May)
08:30 GPB Public Sector Net Borrowing (Apr) - 09:00 EUR EU Financial Stability Review (Apr)
- 10:00 GBP Inflation Report Hearings
- 10:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey – Realised (MoM) (May)
- 12:55 USD Redbook Index (YoY) (May 19)
- 12:55 USD Redbook Index (MoM) (May 19)
- 13:45 USD Markit Manufacturing PMI (May)
- 13:45 USD Markit Service PMI (May)
- 14:00 USD New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)
- 14:00 USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)
- 14:00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
- 15:30 USD 52-Week Bill Auction
- 15:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction
- 17:00 USD 2-Year Note Auction
- 20:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Wednesday
- 06:00 EUR GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun)
- 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications
- 14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Apr)
- 14:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May 19)
- 17:00 USD 5-year Note Auction
- 18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
- 22:00 USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speech
Thursday May 25
- 24hr USD OPEC Meeting
- 08:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals (Apr)
- 08:30 GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)
- 08:30 GBP Index of Service 3M/3M) (Mar)
- 09:30 GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (Q1)
- 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (May 19)
- 12:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims (May 12)
- 12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories (Apr)
- 12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
- 14:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (May 19)
- 15:00 USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity (May)
- 17:00 USD 7-year Note Auction
Friday May 26
- 06:45 USD Fed’s Bullard Speech
- 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (Q1)
- 12:30 USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1)
- 12:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures
- 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation (Apr)
- 12:30 USD Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
- 14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May)
- 17:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
- 19:30 EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions
- 19:30 EUR CFTC Gold NC Net Positions
- 19:30 EUR CFTC USD NC Net Positions
- 19:30 EUR CFTC Oil NC Net Positions
- 19:30 GBP CFTC GBP NC Positions
