Released every first Friday of the month, Non-farm payrolls (NFP) usually affects the US currency, the stock market and the bond market. The NFP report measures the employment situation in the USA and tends to move the markets immediately after its release, sometimes dramatically. Today, Non-farm payroll is expected to increase from 156k to 175k.
Efx NEWS has combined views from some major banks of what to expect from today Non-farm payroll data which are as follows:
- Goldman Sachs: We expect a January non-farm payrolls print of 200k (consensus +175k, last +156k).
- Barclays: We forecast non-farm payroll to have increased 175k in January, a pick-up from the December slowdown. We forecast for the unemployment rate to decline one tenth to 4.6%.
- BofA Merrill: We look for nonfarm payroll job growth of 160,000 in January, about unchanged from 156,000 in the prior month and the 3-month moving average of 165,000.
- SEB: We forecast 175k for total payroll growth, 167k on private payrolls, 4.7% on the unemployment rate and 0.3% on average hourly earnings.
Our traders think that an upbeat print in employment figures from the US today could spark fresh optimism from market participants. Data related to wage growth has become increasingly important since the threat of higher inflation holds the potential to undermine critical areas such as Retail sales if wages do not offset any price increases. If the data print is in line with expectations, we expect added support for the US Dollar.
